Recoverable Abandonment Versus Noise
Not every empty cart deserves an email. Segment leavers by intent before you spend recovery budget.
Browse-and-bounce carts differ from payment-failed carts. Treat them as different problems: one may need clearer shipping promises; the other needs payment reliability.
Build cohorts using depth reached, value in cart, and failure signals. Then assign recovery tactics to the cohorts with evidence of intent—not to every session that touched cart.
Measure recovery against those same cohorts. Blanket campaigns that “lift” only low-intent leavers waste budget and train buyers to wait for discounts.